Pre-tourney Rankings
Western Athletic
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
53 New Mexico St. 100.0%   12   28 - 4 15 - 1 28 - 4 15 - 1 +9.0      +5.7 39 +3.3 85 65.7 268 +11.2 38 +14.5 1
101 Utah Valley 0.0%   22 - 9 12 - 4 22 - 9 12 - 4 +4.8      +3.3 85 +1.5 128 70.1 138 +5.9 87 +5.9 2
113 Grand Canyon 0.0%   19 - 13 10 - 6 19 - 13 10 - 6 +4.0      +2.6 106 +1.4 131 69.3 159 +3.1 125 +2.0 3
168 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.0%   17 - 16 9 - 7 17 - 16 9 - 7 -0.6      -3.1 261 +2.5 105 74.3 60 -0.1 170 +0.9 4
181 Seattle 0.0%   16 - 14 6 - 10 16 - 14 6 - 10 -1.2      -2.6 250 +1.3 136 68.3 187 -1.9 193 -4.6 8
197 California Baptist 0.0%   12 - 14 7 - 9 12 - 14 7 - 9 -2.3      +1.4 137 -3.7 268 70.0 143 -3.1 210 -2.5 6
222 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0%   13 - 15 7 - 9 13 - 15 7 - 9 -3.5      -1.1 208 -2.3 241 64.6 289 -2.0 194 -2.3 5
233 UMKC 0.0%   10 - 21 6 - 10 10 - 21 6 - 10 -4.1      -1.9 234 -2.2 236 66.7 234 -5.1 243 -4.1 7
351 Chicago St. 0.0%   1 - 29 0 - 16 1 - 29 0 - 16 -19.8      -10.0 343 -9.7 352 74.8 54 -19.3 351 -19.1 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
New Mexico St. 1.0 100.0
Utah Valley 2.0 100.0
Grand Canyon 3.0 100.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.0 100.0
Seattle 7.0 100.0
California Baptist 5.0 100.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 5.0 100.0
UMKC 7.0 100.0
Chicago St. 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
New Mexico St. 15 - 1 100.0
Utah Valley 12 - 4 100.0
Grand Canyon 10 - 6 100.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 9 - 7 100.0
Seattle 6 - 10 100.0
California Baptist 7 - 9 100.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7 - 9 100.0
UMKC 6 - 10 100.0
Chicago St. 0 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 100.0% 100.0
Utah Valley
Grand Canyon
UT Rio Grande Valley
Seattle
California Baptist
Cal St. Bakersfield
UMKC
Chicago St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   0.1 0.7 2.1 6.1 21.8 61.2 8.0 0.2
Utah Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Grand Canyon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Seattle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
California Baptist 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UMKC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 28.9% 7.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
2nd Round 28.9% 0.3 71.1 28.9
Sweet Sixteen 7.8% 0.1 92.2 7.8
Elite Eight 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.3
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0